***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.9 25.0 23.5 1.6 68.3 65.0 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.4 22.7 0.7 57.5 56.6 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 25.3 25.3 23.6 1.6 68.2 64.7 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.5 20.7 2.1 76.1 70.1 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 25.5 26.1 22.4 2.3 76.7 70.5 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 24.4 27.0 22.4 4.7 94.2 87.2 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.9 22.6 0.7 57.9 57.0 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.8 21.2 3.5 86.3 78.6 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 24.9 25.4 23.2 2.2 75.2 69.4 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 24.6 25.7 21.8 3.0 82.1 74.6 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.9 23.3 2.9 80.6 73.6 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 24.2 25.6 22.5 3.5 86.0 78.4 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 25.3 26.7 23.5 3.5 85.7 78.4 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.5 22.2 1.9 72.5 67.3 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 25.2 25.4 23.4 1.7 71.3 66.8 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 26.0 27.3 23.1 3.2 84.3 76.8 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.2 21.9 0.3 54.0 53.8 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 24.3 25.4 20.7 2.9 82.4 74.5 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.0 22.8 0.8 59.2 57.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 19.6 21.7 19.4 3.7 89.6 81.6 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 25.0 25.3 23.6 1.9 72.1 67.3 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.2 22.0 0.7 58.1 57.0 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.7 22.9 1.1 62.4 60.3 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 24.6 25.2 22.6 2.3 76.2 69.9 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 24.9 24.9 22.2 1.4 67.2 63.6 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 24.8 26.8 22.6 4.3 91.1 84.2 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 24.7 24.6 22.7 1.4 66.6 63.5 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 25.3 26.1 22.2 2.4 78.0 71.8 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 19.5 20.8 20.1 3.1 84.3 76.2 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.5 23.1 1.0 61.5 59.8 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------