***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 22.5 24.4 24.2 -0.1 48.6 49.2 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.8 24.2 23.8 -0.6 43.0 45.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.5 24.4 -0.2 48.2 49.1 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 17.1 21.9 0.0 49.7 50.0 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.7 24.5 22.4 -0.2 47.8 48.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.2 20.2 0.2 53.0 52.0 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.7 23.8 -0.5 43.7 45.8 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.2 12.2 20.7 -0.1 49.2 50.0 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.2 24.1 22.6 -0.1 48.6 49.6 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.9 21.4 0.0 49.8 50.5 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 22.4 24.2 22.3 -0.1 48.5 49.5 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.3 23.1 22.1 -0.1 49.4 50.0 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.2 24.2 21.1 0.0 49.6 50.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.6 24.3 22.2 -0.2 48.1 49.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 23.2 25.1 23.1 0.1 51.3 51.0 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.8 21.8 0.0 49.9 50.3 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 22.2 23.4 23.5 -0.6 42.3 44.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.4 23.5 20.8 0.0 50.6 51.2 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 22.4 23.7 24.0 -0.5 43.8 46.0 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.3 18.4 18.1 -0.1 49.1 49.8 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.6 24.3 23.5 -0.1 48.5 49.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.0 23.5 -0.5 44.1 46.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.2 24.0 -0.4 45.6 47.6 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.9 22.4 0.0 50.4 51.2 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 22.8 24.5 22.4 -0.1 48.4 49.0 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.7 21.5 0.1 51.5 51.2 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 22.4 24.1 23.3 -0.1 48.3 49.0 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.2 25.0 22.3 0.1 50.8 50.8 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 16.4 18.4 19.7 -0.1 49.0 50.1 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 22.7 24.1 24.0 -0.4 44.7 46.6 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------