***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.6 26.0 1.1 63.3 56.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.7 25.6 0.7 57.5 53.7 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 23.1 26.0 26.2 1.0 62.2 55.9 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 16.2 18.5 23.7 1.0 63.2 56.2 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 23.8 26.3 24.1 1.0 61.7 55.5 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.1 21.8 1.3 66.6 59.0 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.9 25.4 25.6 0.7 58.4 54.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.9 14.1 22.5 1.1 63.3 56.8 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.9 25.7 24.3 1.0 62.5 56.0 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 22.9 25.7 23.1 1.1 63.6 56.5 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 23.8 26.1 24.0 1.0 62.2 55.9 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.8 25.0 23.9 1.1 63.1 56.8 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 24.0 26.3 22.9 1.1 63.5 57.0 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.7 25.8 23.9 1.0 62.3 55.7 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 26.1 26.5 24.9 1.2 64.6 57.1 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.8 23.6 1.1 63.5 56.8 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.2 25.3 0.5 56.3 53.2 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 22.3 25.3 22.5 1.2 65.0 57.1 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.3 25.8 0.7 58.1 53.8 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.2 20.7 19.9 1.2 64.5 57.5 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 23.1 25.9 25.2 1.0 62.2 55.8 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.8 25.2 0.7 57.5 53.8 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 23.0 25.8 25.8 0.8 59.6 54.3 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 22.4 25.6 24.1 1.2 64.4 56.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.3 26.0 24.1 1.0 62.9 55.9 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.7 25.8 23.4 1.3 64.9 58.1 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.1 25.8 25.1 1.1 63.8 56.7 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.3 26.6 24.1 1.1 63.8 56.7 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 17.6 20.4 21.5 1.1 64.0 56.9 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.1 25.7 25.8 0.8 59.5 54.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------