***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.2 7.4 36.4 29.4 25.8 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.6 9.1 50.0 38.6 33.5 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 3.0 2.9 6.7 32.5 27.5 23.4 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 3.4 3.1 6.1 26.2 21.8 19.4 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.4 4.9 23.3 16.8 16.0 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 2.3 1.0 4.1 18.3 9.8 10.7 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.2 9.8 54.3 40.8 35.2 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 5.3 2.7 5.6 20.6 10.3 11.2 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.2 5.7 26.4 18.0 17.4 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 2.8 1.4 5.9 22.1 12.3 12.9 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 2.3 1.2 4.3 19.8 14.2 13.1 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 2.5 1.7 4.8 22.2 14.3 13.4 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 2.0 1.1 4.1 19.0 13.5 12.6 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 3.9 2.7 8.6 31.8 21.3 20.6 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 2.4 2.4 4.4 21.0 23.4 19.2 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 2.9 1.8 4.7 22.4 15.9 14.9 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 5.9 10.7 62.3 45.6 39.0 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 4.0 2.1 7.0 25.2 12.0 13.2 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.2 8.4 44.8 34.6 30.3 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 3.4 1.4 5.9 21.2 8.8 10.1 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 2.3 1.6 5.9 28.7 21.4 19.7 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 7.7 11.1 62.6 46.2 39.2 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.0 2.8 7.4 36.9 28.5 25.7 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 4.2 2.9 6.9 27.8 17.7 17.5 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.4 2.6 6.0 27.8 22.1 20.2 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 1.6 0.8 3.9 19.3 12.9 11.4 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.0 2.8 7.4 35.6 28.3 25.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.7 5.0 22.5 19.9 17.7 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 4.9 2.7 7.4 26.5 12.3 13.6 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.6 4.3 8.2 43.4 34.7 30.5 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------