***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.7 14.5 92.2 59.4 48.0 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.9 14.2 98.2 62.2 48.8 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.4 14.8 91.6 59.5 48.7 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 21.7 19.0 111.9 66.7 53.0 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.9 23.8 18.8 110.3 66.1 54.0 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.8 18.4 22.6 114.5 66.6 53.8 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.2 14.3 13.8 95.6 61.2 48.1 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 32.4 34.8 22.6 130.2 72.7 60.5 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 16.1 17.5 100.5 63.0 52.9 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.3 25.8 22.0 121.2 69.8 58.8 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.5 15.9 19.6 115.0 67.2 55.3 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.2 20.1 20.2 127.9 71.7 57.3 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.0 17.0 21.5 121.6 69.8 54.7 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 17.5 21.3 20.1 99.5 63.1 52.3 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.8 16.0 101.6 63.1 48.7 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.8 18.2 20.6 119.9 69.3 54.6 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.6 12.9 14.1 97.0 62.0 47.1 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.7 22.0 24.9 128.2 71.3 60.1 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.7 18.4 14.5 97.1 61.9 48.7 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 21.9 23.2 27.0 137.0 73.3 62.9 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.2 15.7 94.0 59.8 49.5 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.4 13.7 15.1 98.3 62.2 46.8 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.4 14.9 92.4 59.8 47.3 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.1 21.4 19.8 103.9 63.7 53.0 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.2 15.8 16.8 92.1 58.4 48.2 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.7 21.2 123.9 70.3 52.7 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.9 15.7 91.5 58.6 47.9 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.1 18.3 19.1 117.4 68.8 53.7 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 30.5 32.9 26.2 129.0 71.9 61.8 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.4 17.3 14.1 96.3 61.1 48.1 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------