***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.4 22.9 14.2 90.0 60.2 44.9 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.5 12.9 88.6 60.2 45.1 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 9.6 23.8 14.0 86.6 58.5 43.3 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.6 24.1 15.9 98.4 63.0 47.5 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.7 17.0 13.8 85.7 58.1 44.5 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.1 18.0 19.0 98.0 61.0 49.6 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.4 17.5 13.3 91.5 61.5 46.7 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.1 29.0 18.7 93.8 60.3 46.2 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 19.8 19.1 14.6 84.3 57.5 44.5 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 18.7 19.1 91.3 59.6 46.5 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 8.0 16.9 14.0 88.7 59.0 45.2 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 7.7 17.6 15.3 95.2 61.5 45.7 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.3 16.6 16.6 92.8 60.6 45.7 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.2 29.4 19.7 89.3 59.0 44.2 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 19.1 14.3 100.5 64.5 48.2 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.9 15.2 15.7 96.0 61.9 47.3 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.8 22.3 13.1 86.6 60.0 45.4 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 15.1 27.0 22.7 97.6 61.6 47.6 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.3 20.9 13.5 88.9 59.9 44.3 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.6 20.1 22.4 98.2 60.9 45.6 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.0 18.6 13.5 83.5 57.6 43.7 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.2 18.8 14.2 83.5 58.4 44.1 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.9 19.6 14.9 92.5 61.0 44.4 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.1 27.4 19.1 92.3 60.1 45.6 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.4 21.5 14.9 89.1 59.7 46.0 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.1 13.2 13.5 85.2 58.3 44.1 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.9 20.0 14.8 89.1 59.7 45.7 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.0 16.8 16.0 100.5 64.0 49.3 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 13.5 28.1 23.6 100.0 62.2 47.6 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.9 20.4 13.4 90.0 60.5 44.7 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------