***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9.7 9.4 10.8 -2.1 15.2 18.4 10.5 11.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 9.7 9.2 10.5 -2.3 12.4 15.7 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 11.4 10.9 10.4 -2.2 12.8 15.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 6.1 5.7 8.4 -2.0 15.3 18.9 7.2 8.3 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 8.5 8.1 8.7 -2.1 13.2 16.5 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 7.5 7.3 6.6 -1.9 16.2 19.1 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 9.7 9.2 10.5 -2.3 13.2 16.6 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 2.0 1.6 6.3 -2.2 12.8 16.0 3.0 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 9.4 9.1 9.2 -1.9 15.5 18.4 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 9.4 9.1 7.4 -1.9 15.2 18.4 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 9.2 8.9 8.1 -2.1 13.7 16.8 9.9 10.6 11.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 7.2 6.9 7.1 -2.1 13.9 16.9 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 8.7 8.4 7.2 -1.9 15.6 18.5 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 10.0 9.6 8.9 -2.1 13.6 17.1 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 10.1 10.0 10.0 -1.6 20.9 24.1 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 9.6 9.3 7.9 -1.9 14.8 17.9 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 10.0 9.5 10.2 -2.2 12.8 16.5 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 7.7 7.5 6.5 -1.9 15.1 18.6 8.4 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 9.9 9.4 10.4 -2.2 12.6 15.9 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.8 3.6 4.3 -2.0 14.5 18.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 9.3 8.9 10.2 -2.1 14.1 16.9 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 9.3 8.8 10.2 -2.2 12.6 16.2 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 9.5 9.1 10.2 -2.2 13.0 16.2 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 9.4 9.1 8.6 -2.1 13.5 16.7 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 9.6 9.2 9.7 -2.1 15.2 18.6 10.3 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 8.3 8.0 6.7 -2.1 13.7 16.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 9.5 9.2 10.3 -1.9 17.1 20.5 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 8.3 8.1 9.0 -1.9 16.9 20.1 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 6.3 5.9 5.8 -2.0 14.1 17.6 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 9.8 9.2 10.6 -2.3 12.5 15.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------