***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.6 12.8 -0.8 36.6 40.1 11.4 12.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.7 -0.8 35.4 39.7 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.8 12.5 -0.9 33.9 38.3 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.1 10.4 -1.0 30.2 35.5 7.3 8.5 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.8 9.9 10.4 -0.9 31.8 36.7 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.9 8.8 -0.7 35.6 40.7 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.4 12.8 -0.8 36.9 40.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.3 8.5 -0.8 33.7 38.7 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.9 10.8 -0.8 33.7 38.0 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.7 9.3 -0.8 34.0 38.5 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.5 9.9 -0.9 32.1 37.0 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.3 -0.9 30.8 36.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.9 9.9 8.8 -1.0 28.6 34.7 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.3 10.7 -0.9 31.9 37.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 11.5 11.6 11.0 -1.0 31.1 36.1 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.7 9.6 -0.9 31.1 36.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.3 11.7 12.5 -0.8 36.5 40.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.3 8.6 -0.7 34.2 38.9 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.4 12.5 -0.9 33.8 38.5 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.6 6.8 -0.7 35.4 40.0 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.9 -0.8 34.1 38.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.5 10.8 12.2 -0.9 33.4 38.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.6 10.9 12.1 -1.0 31.3 36.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.5 -0.9 32.7 37.5 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.1 -0.9 32.7 37.1 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.9 -1.2 24.6 30.6 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.0 -0.8 35.5 39.3 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.6 9.7 10.7 -1.0 30.9 36.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.6 8.0 -0.6 36.5 40.8 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.8 -0.8 35.5 39.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------