***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.2 13.1 14.7 0.5 61.0 58.3 11.4 12.5 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.3 14.8 0.6 63.6 60.2 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.4 14.9 14.6 0.5 61.6 58.5 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.4 9.4 12.5 0.3 56.7 54.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.3 12.4 0.4 59.1 56.5 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 10.7 0.5 61.4 58.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.4 14.9 0.7 63.9 60.7 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.3 10.7 0.6 63.5 59.0 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.3 12.8 0.4 60.5 57.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.3 11.3 0.5 62.8 58.9 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.3 11.9 12.0 0.5 60.9 57.8 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 11.4 0.4 60.6 57.5 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.3 10.9 0.3 57.7 56.1 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.0 12.8 0.5 61.6 58.9 11.6 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.0 13.0 0.2 55.3 53.7 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.3 11.7 0.4 59.0 56.7 11.0 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.9 13.6 14.6 0.7 65.3 61.4 11.6 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.8 10.6 0.6 63.5 59.6 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.1 14.7 0.6 62.9 59.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.9 8.9 0.6 64.5 60.0 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.7 12.3 13.8 0.4 59.4 56.9 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.1 12.7 14.4 0.6 63.4 60.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.7 14.3 0.5 61.4 58.6 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 12.9 12.5 12.6 0.5 62.4 59.1 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.2 12.6 13.1 0.5 60.4 57.6 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.6 10.9 0.2 53.6 52.7 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.1 14.0 0.5 61.7 58.8 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.0 12.7 0.2 55.4 53.8 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.6 10.0 0.6 64.6 60.3 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.4 14.9 0.6 62.8 59.7 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------