***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.7 11.8 13.5 -0.6 33.6 37.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.6 11.8 13.4 -0.6 33.3 37.5 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.4 13.2 -0.7 31.2 35.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.0 8.0 11.2 -0.8 26.7 32.7 8.3 8.9 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.2 11.2 -0.7 27.9 33.7 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.4 -0.6 30.7 36.3 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.5 -0.6 34.5 38.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.8 3.9 9.2 -0.6 29.9 35.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 -0.6 30.7 35.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.2 10.0 -0.6 31.4 36.3 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.9 10.7 -0.7 28.9 34.3 11.0 11.5 11.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 9.0 9.0 10.0 -0.7 27.1 32.9 9.2 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.3 9.7 -0.8 24.7 30.9 10.6 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 11.8 11.8 11.5 -0.7 29.9 34.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.0 11.9 -0.7 28.5 33.9 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.2 10.4 -0.7 27.0 32.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.2 -0.5 34.9 39.1 12.1 12.6 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.6 9.7 9.2 -0.6 31.4 36.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.3 -0.6 32.3 36.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.7 5.8 7.4 -0.6 31.9 37.2 5.8 6.2 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.2 12.6 -0.7 30.1 35.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.4 13.0 -0.6 32.2 36.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.4 12.9 -0.7 30.5 34.9 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.2 -0.6 30.2 35.1 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.4 12.0 -0.7 30.2 35.1 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 9.9 9.7 9.5 -1.0 21.0 27.3 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 11.7 11.8 12.8 -0.6 33.9 38.0 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.1 11.5 -0.8 26.6 32.5 10.3 10.7 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.2 8.6 -0.6 32.2 37.2 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.5 -0.6 32.9 37.1 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------