***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 20.5 17.0 18.0 -5.5 1.9 4.0 22.2 23.7 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 20.6 17.2 17.8 -5.6 2.2 4.1 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 20.7 16.7 17.6 -6.0 1.4 2.9 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 13.3 10.1 16.0 -5.2 2.1 4.4 15.0 16.4 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 20.8 17.0 16.3 -5.8 1.4 3.2 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 19.4 17.0 14.9 -4.8 3.8 6.3 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 20.2 17.3 18.0 -5.3 2.8 5.1 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 8.7 5.2 14.3 -5.9 1.6 3.2 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 20.2 15.9 16.8 -6.1 1.1 2.6 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 20.3 16.5 15.1 -6.1 1.2 2.7 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 20.4 16.9 16.0 -5.7 1.6 3.5 22.1 23.5 24.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 19.7 16.7 15.3 -5.6 2.1 3.8 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 20.7 18.0 15.6 -5.3 2.7 4.6 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 20.6 16.1 15.7 -6.6 0.9 1.8 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 20.9 18.1 18.1 -4.7 3.2 5.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 21.0 17.8 16.0 -5.3 2.3 4.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 19.7 16.3 17.5 -5.4 2.3 4.5 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 20.0 16.0 13.9 -6.5 1.0 2.0 21.6 22.9 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 20.2 16.5 17.6 -5.8 1.7 3.4 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 14.7 10.6 11.9 -6.4 1.2 2.4 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 20.4 16.3 17.4 -6.1 1.2 2.7 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 20.3 16.3 17.1 -5.8 1.5 3.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 20.5 16.3 17.2 -6.1 1.2 2.5 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 20.2 15.9 15.7 -6.5 0.9 2.0 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 20.4 17.1 16.8 -5.5 2.0 4.0 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.0 17.6 15.0 -5.1 3.5 5.2 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 20.5 17.4 17.5 -5.4 2.2 4.4 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 20.7 17.6 16.9 -5.0 2.5 4.8 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 14.7 10.6 13.0 -6.5 1.0 2.1 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 20.4 17.0 17.9 -5.6 2.2 4.1 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------