***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.1 23.5 -0.1 48.6 49.4 21.6 23.2 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.4 23.2 -0.3 46.6 47.6 22.3 23.7 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.3 23.3 -0.3 45.8 47.1 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.9 21.6 -0.5 43.9 45.5 14.8 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.3 21.7 -0.5 44.1 45.7 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.8 19.6 -0.6 42.7 44.3 20.9 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.3 23.4 -0.1 48.8 49.1 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.4 19.9 -0.7 41.7 43.8 10.7 12.1 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.6 22.0 -0.5 44.4 46.0 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.8 22.7 20.7 -0.6 42.9 44.8 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.1 22.9 21.1 -0.5 43.2 45.0 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 21.8 20.7 -0.7 41.4 43.4 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.0 20.3 -0.7 41.5 43.5 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.1 21.6 -0.5 44.3 45.7 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.7 22.0 -0.5 42.8 44.5 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.5 20.8 -0.6 42.5 44.3 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.0 23.0 -0.2 47.6 48.2 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.2 20.0 -0.6 43.0 44.8 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.8 22.8 23.2 -0.4 45.4 46.7 21.8 23.2 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.4 17.8 -0.6 42.0 44.1 16.6 18.0 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.1 22.8 -0.4 45.6 47.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.2 22.8 -0.3 45.6 46.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.1 22.9 -0.4 44.6 46.0 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.5 21.6 -0.5 44.0 45.5 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.3 22.0 -0.2 47.8 48.7 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.4 20.1 -0.6 41.8 43.6 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.3 22.8 0.0 49.5 50.0 21.9 23.3 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.5 21.7 -0.6 42.3 44.0 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 17.3 19.0 -0.6 43.0 44.7 16.5 17.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.2 23.4 -0.2 46.9 47.9 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------