***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 21.7 39.6 43.2 263.5 92.0 86.0 5.4 9.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 15.7 31.6 42.3 272.9 93.3 82.8 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 21.5 45.8 45.0 278.8 93.9 87.1 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 23.6 49.5 52.6 290.4 94.4 89.4 5.0 9.7 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 21.3 44.6 48.8 269.0 93.6 88.2 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 17.7 34.1 50.5 265.2 94.4 89.1 4.9 8.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 17.0 36.3 41.4 261.9 92.5 82.4 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 33.1 57.7 48.3 257.5 94.1 88.4 11.5 17.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 20.9 41.3 46.7 257.0 93.1 87.0 4.2 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 25.1 51.2 51.9 259.9 93.8 88.2 5.5 10.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 17.9 36.3 46.2 281.8 94.5 89.0 4.1 7.5 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 16.8 31.8 44.0 278.7 94.8 89.0 5.0 8.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.6 33.2 49.7 289.8 96.2 91.1 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 24.0 65.6 59.9 329.1 97.1 90.2 5.4 10.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 9.8 21.0 52.7 312.9 95.6 89.2 2.7 4.7 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 18.1 38.5 48.7 290.8 95.5 90.1 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 15.6 35.2 43.4 282.9 94.2 81.4 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 26.7 52.3 57.3 271.0 94.7 89.9 7.6 12.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 16.4 35.2 44.2 284.1 94.0 84.0 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 25.3 50.4 53.7 260.7 94.6 90.2 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 15.5 31.6 44.7 264.2 92.6 87.1 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 20.5 46.8 46.1 284.3 94.5 81.4 4.8 9.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 17.5 41.1 48.2 307.0 95.1 86.5 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 23.6 48.8 54.6 288.4 95.1 89.4 6.4 11.2 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 19.2 37.0 51.7 260.2 92.3 87.3 4.2 8.0 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 19.2 42.7 46.6 282.0 95.3 90.9 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 20.6 38.5 47.7 254.1 91.6 86.0 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 13.5 28.1 50.9 302.6 95.3 89.5 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 29.0 57.1 57.1 283.1 95.2 91.1 8.7 14.2 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 16.7 32.0 42.0 267.1 92.9 83.9 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------