***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.0 13.0 91.5 58.6 47.0 7.8 13.4 20.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.1 11.4 82.8 54.2 44.4 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.3 11.9 84.4 55.4 45.9 7.5 12.4 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.9 19.9 16.9 94.3 61.3 50.5 9.2 15.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.3 15.4 88.8 58.8 49.3 9.3 15.9 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.7 18.0 24.7 108.9 65.6 50.3 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.2 11.2 79.4 52.3 42.8 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.1 17.3 87.0 57.0 45.9 9.0 16.4 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.1 14.5 85.2 56.8 47.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.7 17.0 17.1 83.3 55.0 44.9 9.3 15.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 13.5 88.6 58.5 47.3 6.4 10.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.7 14.1 91.9 60.1 48.3 6.4 11.1 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.4 14.1 18.6 101.4 63.0 50.7 4.9 9.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.8 14.4 15.3 79.1 51.1 39.2 8.3 14.0 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.3 16.4 98.4 62.5 48.2 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.0 16.5 99.2 62.6 50.1 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.4 11.1 84.6 55.9 44.0 5.0 8.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 12.8 20.1 84.1 54.4 43.7 6.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.0 11.6 85.7 55.8 45.2 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.6 24.1 94.9 59.1 47.0 7.5 12.3 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.6 15.7 13.2 90.2 59.1 48.3 7.1 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.3 11.4 11.6 86.5 57.1 45.5 6.5 9.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.3 12.4 88.6 57.6 46.1 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.5 13.0 15.5 79.4 51.6 41.8 7.1 12.4 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.3 17.0 87.0 56.6 47.6 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.8 15.2 102.4 63.7 51.1 5.2 9.2 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.6 15.8 88.7 56.7 46.9 8.4 13.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.5 16.5 16.8 98.9 63.1 49.6 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.1 20.5 20.7 85.9 55.0 43.5 10.5 17.9 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.4 11.7 83.6 54.7 45.4 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------