***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.7 14.9 96.6 63.5 47.5 5.0 9.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.7 14.6 16.1 99.8 64.8 50.2 4.1 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.9 15.6 16.0 103.9 65.5 49.6 6.2 10.4 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 21.8 20.6 115.8 69.4 54.7 8.4 13.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.0 18.8 106.5 66.7 53.2 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 21.8 23.7 28.3 134.7 74.0 59.3 9.0 13.8 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.4 15.9 97.8 64.1 49.8 3.2 7.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.2 34.9 22.7 122.7 70.6 57.3 13.2 21.2 31.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.1 14.0 18.7 102.7 65.6 51.2 6.2 9.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 19.6 23.6 115.8 68.8 54.5 7.8 12.5 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 16.5 17.0 110.6 67.6 53.3 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.5 17.7 127.0 72.0 57.2 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 20.8 21.9 135.2 74.1 58.7 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.3 28.9 23.4 122.3 70.6 54.4 8.7 15.6 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.3 22.5 20.9 133.4 73.8 54.5 6.1 11.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.9 19.6 19.8 127.1 72.0 56.8 6.5 10.9 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.9 13.5 16.4 100.3 65.1 49.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 25.2 29.7 129.2 72.4 57.3 8.9 14.4 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 13.6 16.2 104.4 66.2 50.4 3.5 7.6 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 23.5 30.4 126.1 71.4 58.7 7.6 13.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.1 16.4 102.5 65.9 50.7 5.9 9.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.5 19.0 16.4 103.7 66.0 51.2 4.5 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.3 17.2 113.1 68.6 50.9 4.7 9.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 8.8 25.3 24.1 123.1 70.7 54.2 8.8 14.8 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.2 14.9 20.5 106.0 66.4 51.9 6.0 9.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.8 21.0 18.4 139.7 75.2 59.5 5.4 9.8 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.0 18.7 102.2 64.9 50.2 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.9 18.6 20.7 127.4 72.4 55.5 7.6 11.5 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.9 30.4 29.2 126.4 71.6 57.8 11.0 17.7 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.4 15.5 97.4 63.8 49.6 4.3 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------