***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9.0 27.7 11.5 120.7 70.8 53.5 8.5 15.2 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 8.9 24.5 11.1 111.1 67.3 48.9 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.1 32.5 11.2 119.1 69.8 54.1 10.8 18.7 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 37.9 15.9 144.6 76.3 59.1 9.9 17.6 28.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.4 27.4 15.8 143.4 76.2 57.3 9.7 15.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.6 26.1 23.9 141.3 75.6 57.7 7.3 12.8 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 9.0 22.3 11.5 111.4 67.3 49.2 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.4 38.7 18.2 130.9 73.0 54.9 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.0 28.0 15.7 136.0 74.6 55.7 10.1 15.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.1 26.1 18.9 132.8 73.6 55.9 10.0 15.4 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.2 25.5 14.0 144.5 76.3 55.8 8.1 13.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.8 24.9 14.1 139.7 75.3 54.8 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.3 25.6 17.9 142.7 75.9 56.9 7.2 12.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.5 33.9 14.6 109.4 66.7 52.5 12.6 21.7 33.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.6 25.9 13.9 140.1 75.2 56.8 6.3 11.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.0 21.6 15.1 139.8 75.3 57.0 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 9.6 27.9 11.0 104.0 65.6 47.2 9.8 17.8 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 30.9 21.0 123.6 71.1 56.1 13.8 20.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.7 28.9 10.6 111.1 67.3 49.5 8.7 16.6 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 22.9 22.3 116.9 68.7 53.7 7.5 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.3 25.1 12.6 129.1 72.9 53.9 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.0 25.7 10.3 104.1 65.5 47.5 9.1 16.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.0 22.0 10.5 111.3 67.5 51.0 7.2 13.0 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.8 31.1 15.8 119.4 69.9 55.4 14.0 20.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 19.9 29.4 16.6 132.2 73.6 57.7 9.3 15.8 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 17.8 22.9 15.7 155.0 78.5 59.3 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 27.4 15.2 124.2 71.5 55.2 8.1 14.7 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.7 20.1 15.0 146.2 76.7 59.0 6.3 10.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.0 32.5 20.7 120.1 70.1 55.1 12.4 20.0 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.7 26.3 11.2 114.4 68.2 50.8 10.2 16.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------