***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 87.3 106.7 82.6 148.9 82.1 73.6 47.0 62.8 80.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 76.5 90.0 81.0 146.0 82.1 72.3 43.8 56.4 70.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 91.3 114.7 84.1 152.8 84.4 75.6 50.2 66.1 83.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 97.2 120.2 106.1 163.4 86.6 77.8 61.0 75.3 90.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 83.9 102.3 98.8 154.0 84.6 75.5 50.3 63.7 77.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 79.4 103.3 127.4 160.1 88.9 76.5 48.7 60.5 73.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 75.4 87.1 80.0 141.6 80.4 70.8 38.6 52.2 67.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 122.9 144.2 106.6 150.2 85.8 74.7 86.8 101.4 116.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 75.4 88.7 95.5 147.3 83.4 72.6 49.0 59.7 71.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 88.4 108.6 111.4 148.8 85.3 73.4 54.6 68.0 82.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 72.8 91.7 90.7 160.2 87.2 76.9 44.1 55.1 66.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 73.6 93.9 90.0 163.2 87.9 77.9 43.6 54.9 67.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 70.8 92.3 108.0 168.5 89.8 79.8 43.9 54.2 65.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 112.9 144.1 113.2 161.6 88.9 77.4 67.6 84.2 102.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 70.2 99.3 104.0 175.6 89.5 78.4 37.4 49.9 63.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 71.3 92.7 100.1 167.7 89.3 79.3 44.0 54.4 65.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 80.0 99.5 81.9 147.8 82.7 70.7 40.3 55.6 72.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 91.0 107.5 128.1 150.9 86.1 74.0 64.4 75.2 86.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 87.8 108.7 82.6 152.6 84.2 74.4 46.5 61.8 79.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 84.9 100.2 130.6 146.3 84.8 73.8 58.5 69.4 81.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 71.2 88.0 86.9 151.9 84.1 74.3 42.5 54.2 66.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 85.8 110.8 84.4 152.8 84.5 71.8 48.7 63.5 80.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 75.1 93.3 88.4 162.5 86.9 76.9 44.1 55.4 67.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 93.5 108.6 110.0 154.9 86.6 75.7 67.1 77.5 88.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 77.4 93.7 105.8 148.5 82.3 73.3 47.5 59.9 73.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 71.0 96.4 96.0 175.5 90.9 82.4 40.8 51.8 63.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 81.6 97.1 97.4 145.6 81.4 72.7 48.3 62.1 77.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 64.7 83.2 103.4 171.3 88.8 78.6 40.5 50.1 60.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 111.6 132.8 127.7 151.0 86.2 74.5 77.9 91.8 106.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 80.8 95.3 80.3 145.2 81.7 73.0 43.0 57.2 72.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------