***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 11.7 13.7 0.0 50.8 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.8 13.4 -0.2 45.9 46.4 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.6 13.4 -0.1 48.7 48.8 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.3 11.7 -0.1 46.6 48.1 7.4 8.5 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.5 11.4 -0.3 43.7 45.8 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.3 9.5 -0.2 44.5 45.7 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 13.4 -0.2 46.4 46.8 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.7 9.2 -0.5 38.7 40.6 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.2 11.7 -0.3 43.3 45.1 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.0 10.0 -0.4 40.6 42.3 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.1 10.8 -0.3 43.6 45.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.0 10.0 -0.5 39.0 41.0 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.6 -0.5 39.1 41.1 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.4 -0.5 38.8 41.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.6 12.5 0.1 51.6 51.5 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.4 10.5 -0.3 43.1 44.7 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.0 13.0 -0.4 42.8 44.1 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.5 9.2 -0.5 38.5 40.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.0 13.3 -0.2 46.3 46.8 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.6 7.3 -0.6 35.7 37.8 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.4 12.8 -0.2 46.4 47.4 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.1 12.8 -0.4 41.4 43.2 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 13.0 -0.2 45.9 46.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.3 -0.4 42.0 43.5 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 12.2 -0.1 48.1 48.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.6 9.6 -0.7 35.3 37.9 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 13.0 0.0 49.6 49.7 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 12.0 -0.1 48.0 48.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.6 8.4 -0.6 36.8 38.9 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.1 13.6 -0.1 47.9 47.9 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------