***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 13.6 14.7 0.4 57.7 56.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.8 14.6 0.3 55.8 54.9 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.5 14.5 0.3 56.3 55.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.1 12.6 0.2 53.9 53.4 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 12.5 0.2 54.2 53.5 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.0 10.6 0.3 56.7 55.2 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.9 14.6 0.3 56.5 55.6 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.5 10.4 0.1 51.1 50.8 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 12.1 12.1 12.8 0.2 55.0 54.1 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.9 11.2 0.1 53.1 52.5 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.6 12.0 0.2 54.7 53.7 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.7 11.2 0.0 50.9 50.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.0 10.8 0.0 51.1 51.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.5 12.5 0.0 49.6 49.9 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.2 13.4 0.3 57.5 55.9 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.0 11.6 0.2 53.6 53.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.0 14.3 0.3 54.9 54.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.3 10.4 0.0 50.8 50.9 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.7 14.5 0.3 55.3 54.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.2 8.5 -0.1 48.6 49.0 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.1 13.9 0.3 55.7 54.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.1 14.1 0.1 51.9 51.8 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.3 14.1 0.2 53.8 53.3 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 0.1 52.0 51.8 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.3 13.1 0.2 54.7 54.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.2 10.6 -0.3 43.7 45.5 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.8 13.9 0.4 56.6 55.6 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.0 12.9 0.2 55.1 54.3 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.1 8.8 9.6 0.0 50.6 50.6 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.0 14.7 0.4 56.5 55.4 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------