***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 14.2 15.3 0.3 56.3 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 15.3 0.3 56.7 55.4 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.7 15.2 0.4 58.4 56.7 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.5 13.2 0.1 53.1 53.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 13.1 0.2 55.0 54.9 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.0 11.1 0.0 50.8 51.6 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.1 15.2 0.3 56.1 55.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 11.1 0.1 51.9 52.2 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.3 13.5 0.3 56.2 55.4 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 11.9 0.2 54.7 54.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.9 12.6 0.2 55.1 55.0 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.1 11.9 0.1 51.7 52.3 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.4 11.4 0.1 51.2 52.1 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 13.5 0.3 56.6 55.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.9 13.9 0.1 53.1 53.0 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.2 12.2 0.1 52.7 53.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 15.0 0.3 55.5 54.7 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 11.2 0.2 55.2 54.5 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.1 15.3 0.4 57.9 56.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 9.3 0.1 51.4 51.8 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 14.5 0.3 56.5 55.6 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.6 14.9 0.3 55.9 54.6 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.8 15.1 0.4 58.8 56.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.5 13.3 0.4 57.4 56.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.5 13.7 0.2 54.4 54.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.8 11.4 -0.1 48.4 49.8 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.9 14.5 0.3 55.4 55.0 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.1 13.5 0.1 52.2 52.5 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.3 10.5 0.2 55.1 54.5 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.3 15.4 0.3 57.1 55.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------