***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 12.9 14.3 0.4 62.3 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.7 14.0 0.2 56.6 55.3 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 14.0 0.3 59.7 57.6 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.3 12.1 0.2 56.7 55.0 8.4 9.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.1 12.0 0.2 55.3 54.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.9 10.0 0.1 53.8 52.5 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.7 14.0 0.2 57.6 56.1 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.5 9.8 -0.1 48.3 48.4 4.1 4.6 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.0 12.4 0.2 57.4 55.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.8 10.6 0.1 51.9 51.4 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.7 11.4 0.1 54.4 53.3 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.7 10.6 0.0 48.7 48.7 9.3 9.7 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.0 10.3 -0.1 47.9 48.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.4 12.0 -0.1 46.8 47.4 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.1 13.1 0.4 64.5 61.1 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.1 11.1 0.1 52.4 51.7 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.8 13.6 0.1 53.3 52.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.3 9.8 -0.1 48.1 48.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.7 13.9 0.2 56.7 55.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.1 7.8 -0.2 43.5 44.6 5.9 6.3 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 13.4 0.2 58.1 56.5 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.0 13.4 0.0 49.7 50.0 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.3 13.6 0.2 55.7 54.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.9 11.9 0.0 51.5 51.0 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.4 12.8 0.2 57.8 56.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.4 10.1 -0.3 40.7 41.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.8 13.6 0.4 61.1 58.9 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.0 12.5 0.2 58.2 56.1 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.7 9.0 -0.1 46.3 47.0 8.3 8.8 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.9 14.2 0.3 58.8 57.0 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------