***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 23.4 23.0 -0.4 44.1 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.4 23.3 22.7 -0.5 42.6 42.6 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.2 22.9 -0.6 42.2 42.6 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.6 21.2 -0.8 39.2 40.6 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.9 21.1 -0.9 37.9 39.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.2 18.8 -1.2 34.9 37.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.0 22.7 -0.5 43.0 43.0 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.1 10.7 19.2 -1.3 33.6 36.1 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.3 21.5 -0.9 38.2 39.9 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.0 -1.1 35.9 37.9 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.4 20.6 -1.0 37.3 39.1 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.2 20.1 -1.2 34.1 36.6 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.7 22.3 19.5 -1.3 33.5 36.1 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.7 21.0 -1.0 36.9 38.3 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.7 23.7 21.9 -0.5 42.4 43.3 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.3 22.9 20.2 -1.1 35.7 37.9 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 21.8 22.6 22.2 -0.7 40.4 41.1 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.7 19.2 -1.2 34.6 36.8 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.9 22.8 -0.5 42.6 42.7 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 16.0 16.6 16.8 -1.5 30.8 33.8 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.1 22.7 22.3 -0.7 40.2 41.3 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.0 22.1 -0.8 39.0 40.0 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.2 22.6 -0.6 41.9 42.2 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.2 21.0 -1.0 37.5 39.0 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.0 21.5 -0.6 41.9 42.6 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.6 19.2 -1.5 31.3 34.3 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.0 22.9 22.1 -0.4 43.6 43.7 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.3 21.5 -0.8 39.0 40.6 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 16.0 16.7 18.1 -1.3 33.4 35.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.2 22.9 -0.5 43.4 43.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------