***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 25.1 24.4 0.6 58.2 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.0 24.2 0.4 55.3 54.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.9 24.3 0.4 55.1 54.6 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.4 22.6 0.3 54.0 53.2 15.7 17.1 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.9 22.5 0.1 51.6 51.4 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.9 20.1 -0.1 49.2 49.5 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.7 24.1 0.4 56.2 55.4 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.1 20.5 -0.2 47.0 48.0 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.3 22.9 0.1 51.5 51.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.9 21.4 -0.1 48.9 49.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.4 21.9 0.0 50.1 50.3 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.1 21.5 -0.2 47.4 48.1 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.1 20.9 -0.2 47.4 48.1 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.3 22.5 0.0 50.5 51.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.6 23.3 0.5 57.6 55.9 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.9 21.6 -0.1 49.1 49.4 23.5 24.9 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.3 23.8 0.3 54.1 53.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.3 20.6 -0.2 47.9 49.0 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.5 24.2 0.4 55.2 54.9 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.8 18.2 18.2 -0.3 45.5 47.0 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.7 23.8 0.3 53.8 53.3 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.8 23.8 0.3 53.7 53.7 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.8 24.0 0.3 54.3 54.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.9 22.4 0.0 50.4 51.0 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.1 22.9 0.5 57.0 55.7 23.3 24.6 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.6 20.7 -0.3 46.3 47.2 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.8 23.6 0.6 58.3 56.8 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.3 22.8 0.2 53.4 52.8 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.3 19.5 -0.2 47.4 48.7 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.0 24.4 0.4 56.2 55.5 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------