***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 14.7 14.2 92.3 59.4 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.7 11.4 14.3 103.8 63.5 53.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.2 12.7 87.0 56.0 48.1 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.5 16.0 17.0 104.6 63.8 56.0 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 9.8 13.8 85.8 55.4 48.8 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.0 17.0 90.8 56.3 49.1 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.0 15.5 106.4 64.5 53.3 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.6 17.6 13.5 81.5 51.1 45.5 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.4 13.8 88.6 57.0 51.0 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 13.2 14.2 82.2 51.9 46.9 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.6 12.1 83.6 53.8 47.4 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.1 12.0 85.1 54.4 48.0 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.1 15.4 91.1 56.9 50.5 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.6 11.3 14.3 81.0 52.6 46.4 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.7 15.1 100.3 62.1 52.1 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.4 14.4 91.3 57.0 50.5 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.1 15.5 106.7 65.2 55.3 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 12.3 15.1 80.4 50.5 46.1 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.4 13.7 99.6 61.8 52.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.6 12.0 16.6 84.6 51.5 46.1 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.4 13.3 87.9 57.2 50.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.0 14.6 101.1 62.8 53.9 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.3 13.7 95.4 60.0 51.7 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.7 11.6 13.8 81.1 52.1 47.2 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.0 17.0 97.0 60.4 52.5 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.4 15.4 93.3 57.5 50.0 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.3 13.4 16.9 97.7 61.1 52.6 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.3 15.2 98.4 60.9 53.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 15.1 15.1 79.0 49.5 45.0 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.9 14.1 100.7 62.2 52.4 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------