***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 71.1 64.3 104.0 60.1 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 64.1 68.9 63.4 108.3 62.9 54.9 44.0 57.4 72.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 73.2 78.5 64.3 107.0 61.9 54.4 50.0 65.7 83.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 82.5 90.7 77.9 112.1 65.4 57.1 61.3 75.7 91.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 70.2 73.8 73.6 107.5 62.3 55.2 50.0 63.3 77.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 65.6 70.1 95.6 107.3 62.1 56.5 47.5 60.0 73.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 59.0 63.2 64.6 107.2 62.1 54.3 38.3 51.8 67.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 106.4 111.1 78.7 107.1 61.8 55.6 85.6 100.1 115.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 64.2 67.1 71.5 106.6 61.7 55.3 49.0 59.4 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 74.4 76.6 79.7 104.3 59.8 53.8 54.1 67.9 82.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 60.9 64.7 67.3 107.3 62.1 55.4 43.8 55.4 68.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 59.7 66.2 67.1 111.1 64.6 58.0 42.4 54.5 67.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 60.0 64.9 80.6 109.6 63.8 57.5 44.6 55.3 66.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 91.2 94.9 76.2 104.9 60.5 53.6 66.8 83.3 101.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 37.6 60.8 67.3 106.8 61.9 53.5 38.0 50.5 65.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 59.7 64.6 74.6 109.7 63.8 57.4 43.9 54.6 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 63.7 66.6 61.1 104.8 60.6 53.2 40.0 55.3 73.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 78.2 81.4 89.4 105.5 60.7 54.8 61.4 73.3 85.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 70.8 76.9 62.5 108.6 63.1 55.1 46.5 62.4 80.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 74.2 79.3 99.6 109.0 63.5 56.8 58.8 69.7 81.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 61.0 64.4 64.2 105.6 61.1 54.7 43.9 55.6 68.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 73.0 73.6 59.8 102.5 59.0 51.3 48.2 64.1 81.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 61.3 67.2 64.4 110.2 64.1 56.3 44.1 55.9 68.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 80.2 82.8 77.4 105.5 60.8 54.1 65.4 75.7 86.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 67.3 71.9 78.8 106.9 61.9 55.2 49.1 61.8 75.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 55.6 61.7 72.9 110.3 64.2 58.4 38.2 50.1 63.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 69.1 73.4 75.2 105.4 60.9 54.3 50.5 64.0 78.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 55.3 58.9 72.1 108.5 63.1 55.4 39.9 50.3 61.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 95.5 99.1 90.0 105.5 60.6 54.8 75.5 89.8 104.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 65.2 70.9 64.6 108.8 63.3 55.5 44.1 58.2 73.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------