***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 11.6 10.9 11.2 -0.5 39.9 40.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.1 10.9 -0.5 39.8 40.5 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.4 11.0 -0.8 33.8 35.0 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.8 7.5 8.6 -0.6 37.1 38.0 7.2 8.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.4 9.4 -0.7 36.1 37.2 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 7.8 7.9 6.6 -1.0 29.1 30.6 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.1 11.0 -0.5 40.9 41.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 2.7 6.2 -1.0 29.2 30.6 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.2 10.5 9.6 -0.5 38.7 39.8 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.1 7.4 -0.8 33.0 34.4 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.0 8.8 -0.8 34.1 35.3 9.9 10.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.6 7.7 7.3 -1.1 27.3 28.7 7.9 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.1 9.2 7.7 -1.0 28.9 30.3 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.6 8.9 -0.9 31.0 33.1 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 11.6 11.3 10.8 -0.1 47.6 47.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.3 10.4 8.3 -0.9 31.9 33.3 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.2 10.6 -0.5 39.8 40.3 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.2 6.6 -1.1 28.5 30.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.0 10.8 -0.6 37.3 38.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 4.3 4.9 -1.0 29.7 31.2 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.2 10.6 -0.7 35.5 36.8 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.0 10.4 -1.0 31.0 32.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.5 10.6 -0.8 34.4 35.9 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.0 8.9 -1.0 30.4 32.1 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.4 10.8 10.6 -0.4 41.8 42.4 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 8.3 8.5 6.6 -1.3 24.0 25.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 12.2 11.3 11.0 -0.4 41.8 42.3 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.1 9.3 -0.6 37.1 38.0 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 6.9 5.8 -1.1 28.8 30.7 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.1 11.1 -0.6 38.9 39.7 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------