***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.2 15.5 0.7 63.0 59.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 0.7 63.1 59.4 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.0 15.7 0.7 64.1 60.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.2 13.0 0.7 65.1 61.3 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.5 12.8 0.5 61.5 58.8 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.7 11.0 0.8 69.4 64.4 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 15.4 0.7 63.0 59.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.3 10.6 0.6 62.7 59.8 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.5 13.0 0.5 61.5 58.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.4 11.5 0.5 61.3 58.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.3 12.3 0.6 63.1 60.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 11.7 11.6 11.5 0.7 64.9 61.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.1 12.9 11.0 0.6 63.0 60.7 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.2 13.0 0.4 59.1 57.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.6 14.4 0.9 69.7 64.8 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 13.9 13.8 11.8 0.7 65.1 62.0 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.7 15.2 0.7 63.1 59.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 10.6 0.5 61.2 58.6 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.3 15.4 0.7 63.0 59.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.8 8.4 0.4 59.3 57.4 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 14.5 0.6 61.6 58.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 14.9 0.5 59.8 56.9 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.0 15.1 0.6 62.5 59.1 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.7 12.8 0.5 61.8 59.1 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 13.9 0.5 60.7 57.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.4 10.8 0.7 65.4 62.4 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.3 14.7 0.6 62.2 58.8 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.7 13.4 0.8 68.1 63.7 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.5 9.9 0.4 59.4 57.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.7 15.6 0.7 63.3 59.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------