***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.0 14.1 0.8 70.5 67.7 11.9 12.4 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 0.7 69.4 66.7 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.7 14.0 0.6 67.9 65.6 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 9.8 9.9 11.5 0.7 71.6 68.4 8.4 9.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.5 11.5 11.8 0.7 69.8 67.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.4 9.6 0.8 74.0 69.9 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.0 13.8 0.7 68.3 65.9 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.1 9.1 0.5 65.7 63.4 4.1 4.6 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 0.6 69.5 66.7 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.2 10.0 0.5 66.4 64.2 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.1 11.1 0.6 68.7 65.9 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.3 10.1 0.6 68.2 65.2 9.3 9.7 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.6 9.9 0.5 67.8 64.8 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.8 11.4 0.3 60.4 59.4 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.4 13.0 0.9 76.7 72.5 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.7 10.7 0.7 70.5 67.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.3 13.3 13.5 0.7 68.8 66.2 12.2 12.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.7 9.3 0.4 63.9 62.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.1 13.7 0.7 68.6 66.1 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.6 7.3 0.4 64.3 62.3 5.9 6.3 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.4 13.2 0.6 68.4 66.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.3 13.2 0.4 62.7 61.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.7 13.5 0.6 67.0 65.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.4 12.3 11.4 0.4 63.6 62.2 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.8 12.9 0.7 70.3 67.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.2 9.5 0.6 69.2 65.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.1 13.5 0.8 71.0 68.2 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.4 11.9 0.7 72.8 69.0 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.2 8.5 0.3 61.3 60.1 8.3 8.8 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.2 14.0 0.7 68.9 66.4 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------