***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 20.3 20.1 18.9 -2.7 17.4 19.8 21.9 23.6 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 20.7 20.3 18.7 -2.8 16.6 18.6 22.3 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 20.7 20.3 18.6 -3.0 16.0 18.5 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 13.5 13.1 15.9 -2.7 16.2 18.8 15.0 16.5 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 21.0 20.5 17.0 -2.9 15.3 18.2 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 19.6 19.4 15.3 -2.6 16.9 20.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 20.6 20.4 18.8 -2.6 18.4 20.5 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 8.9 8.1 14.6 -3.2 12.8 15.8 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 20.3 19.8 17.9 -2.9 15.1 18.0 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 20.3 19.8 15.8 -3.2 14.0 17.0 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 20.7 20.1 17.4 -3.0 14.9 18.0 22.2 23.7 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 19.8 19.4 15.9 -3.0 14.4 17.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 20.9 20.6 17.0 -2.8 15.8 18.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 20.4 19.5 16.8 -3.6 12.2 14.8 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 21.3 21.2 19.0 -2.4 19.5 21.8 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 21.4 21.0 17.0 -2.7 16.4 19.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 20.2 19.9 18.4 -2.7 17.8 20.0 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 19.9 19.2 14.6 -3.4 12.9 15.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 20.2 19.8 18.5 -2.9 15.8 17.9 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 14.8 14.0 12.6 -3.4 12.5 15.3 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 20.6 20.0 18.6 -3.0 15.0 17.8 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 20.4 19.8 18.0 -3.0 14.7 17.1 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 20.4 20.0 18.3 -3.0 15.2 17.5 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 20.0 19.3 16.9 -3.4 13.3 16.0 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 20.7 20.3 17.8 -2.8 16.6 19.2 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 20.3 19.7 15.2 -2.9 13.9 17.0 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 20.7 20.4 18.4 -2.6 17.9 20.2 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 21.0 20.7 17.2 -2.6 17.2 19.9 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 14.7 13.9 13.8 -3.5 12.6 15.4 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 20.6 20.2 18.8 -2.8 16.8 19.0 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------