***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 25.3 25.8 25.1 2.3 77.4 73.3 21.9 23.4 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 25.4 25.6 24.7 2.0 73.8 70.4 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 25.7 26.2 25.4 2.4 78.3 74.1 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 18.5 19.4 22.8 2.6 81.4 76.3 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 25.9 26.8 24.0 2.8 81.6 76.6 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 24.5 26.0 22.5 3.6 87.9 81.4 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.2 24.7 2.0 73.8 70.3 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 14.1 15.1 22.2 3.0 83.0 77.2 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 25.3 26.2 24.6 2.8 82.0 76.9 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 25.2 26.2 23.1 3.0 82.8 77.1 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 25.5 26.6 24.4 3.1 83.9 78.1 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 24.4 25.5 23.5 3.2 85.2 79.0 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 25.7 26.9 23.7 3.3 85.6 79.5 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 25.5 25.9 23.7 2.2 75.9 72.2 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 26.0 26.9 24.7 2.7 82.0 76.7 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 26.2 27.5 24.0 3.3 85.7 79.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.0 24.4 1.9 72.9 69.6 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 24.6 25.4 22.3 2.8 81.0 75.7 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 25.0 25.3 24.9 2.1 74.8 71.3 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 20.0 20.8 20.1 2.8 80.9 75.5 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 25.4 26.1 25.2 2.6 79.6 75.1 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.4 24.1 1.8 71.8 68.8 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 25.5 25.9 25.0 2.2 76.7 73.0 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 24.9 25.5 24.0 2.5 78.8 74.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 25.5 26.0 23.9 2.3 77.6 73.3 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 25.0 26.3 22.8 3.5 87.2 80.7 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.7 24.4 2.2 76.9 72.7 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 26.1 27.2 23.8 2.9 83.5 77.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 19.8 20.6 21.5 2.8 80.4 75.2 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 25.4 25.7 25.0 2.1 75.1 71.5 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------