***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.8 25.6 0.6 58.1 55.6 23.5 25.1 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.2 25.7 0.7 59.1 56.1 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.3 25.9 0.7 59.9 56.5 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.7 19.0 23.7 0.8 61.8 58.2 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 26.5 26.4 23.8 0.5 57.5 55.0 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.5 21.7 1.0 64.4 59.4 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.8 25.7 0.7 59.0 56.4 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.2 22.0 0.5 56.9 54.0 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.7 24.0 0.5 57.0 54.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.6 22.7 0.5 56.6 53.8 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.4 23.6 0.7 59.5 55.9 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.3 23.4 0.8 61.3 56.8 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.6 22.5 0.8 61.4 56.9 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.3 23.3 0.0 50.6 50.2 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 27.5 27.3 24.9 1.2 67.6 62.0 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.8 27.3 23.3 0.9 63.2 58.3 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.7 25.6 0.7 59.0 56.3 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.9 22.0 0.4 55.1 52.8 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.7 25.7 0.6 58.5 55.4 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.3 19.4 0.2 52.4 51.2 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.0 25.9 24.9 0.5 56.6 54.5 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.9 25.0 0.3 54.5 52.8 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.0 25.5 0.6 57.6 54.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.2 23.6 0.3 54.8 52.9 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.9 23.8 0.4 55.6 54.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.4 22.9 1.2 66.7 60.6 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.7 24.7 0.5 56.6 54.7 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.2 24.1 1.1 65.5 60.4 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.9 21.0 0.2 52.8 51.4 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.8 26.1 25.7 0.7 59.5 56.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------