***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.4 24.3 23.5 0.2 54.4 54.4 23.2 24.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.6 23.4 0.2 53.4 53.2 23.5 24.5 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.7 23.7 0.3 55.3 55.1 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.5 21.2 0.4 58.6 57.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.0 21.9 0.3 56.1 55.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 24.0 24.0 20.1 0.8 67.7 62.8 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.4 24.3 23.4 0.2 54.5 54.2 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.8 20.0 0.3 56.1 55.1 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.4 22.4 0.3 56.2 55.8 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.2 20.9 0.3 56.1 55.5 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.7 22.0 0.4 59.3 57.7 23.4 24.3 25.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.8 21.3 0.5 61.8 58.8 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.1 21.2 0.6 63.2 59.7 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.1 21.6 -0.2 46.4 48.1 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.5 23.1 0.6 63.9 60.9 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.7 21.7 0.7 64.2 60.7 24.1 24.9 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 24.2 24.1 23.2 0.2 54.2 53.7 22.9 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.6 20.1 0.2 53.3 53.4 22.6 23.5 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 24.3 24.1 23.4 0.2 53.1 53.0 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.8 17.7 0.1 51.5 51.8 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.4 23.2 0.2 53.6 53.8 23.3 24.3 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.3 22.8 0.0 49.4 49.7 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.6 24.5 23.3 0.2 53.2 53.3 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.8 21.8 0.1 51.4 52.1 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.5 22.0 0.1 52.4 52.9 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 24.7 24.7 20.7 0.8 68.0 62.7 23.0 23.8 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.3 22.8 0.2 53.7 53.9 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.4 22.0 0.6 63.2 60.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.6 19.1 0.1 51.3 51.9 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.6 24.5 23.5 0.2 54.1 54.0 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------