***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 19.6 22.6 32.1 154.4 78.8 75.3 4.6 8.9 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 16.4 21.8 33.3 178.8 83.6 79.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 22.0 28.3 34.6 173.1 82.4 79.2 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 23.7 38.2 44.4 214.4 89.2 84.9 5.5 10.4 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 19.4 28.6 38.8 187.9 85.8 81.0 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 16.5 20.9 35.4 162.9 82.2 75.4 6.0 9.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 17.0 22.7 31.6 173.3 82.5 77.6 3.6 7.3 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 31.0 42.3 49.0 195.7 88.4 84.7 11.4 17.1 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 18.2 25.2 38.9 181.2 84.5 80.8 4.4 8.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 25.9 34.9 48.7 187.3 86.3 83.0 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 17.6 27.9 41.5 200.1 87.9 83.4 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 15.0 24.1 41.8 209.5 89.9 85.3 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.2 20.0 37.0 181.8 85.1 79.9 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 27.0 42.0 53.9 202.9 87.7 83.8 4.9 10.4 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 10.7 17.4 38.7 229.5 89.0 84.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 18.8 26.6 37.7 196.4 87.3 82.5 5.6 9.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 15.8 21.2 32.7 177.5 83.5 77.7 4.4 7.8 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 25.7 34.6 48.2 179.7 85.1 81.6 6.9 12.2 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 17.6 23.7 35.4 180.9 84.0 80.4 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 24.7 34.1 43.0 167.1 83.4 79.0 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.3 20.2 36.3 171.8 82.5 79.0 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 21.7 31.5 38.4 199.6 87.0 81.6 5.8 10.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 17.9 23.6 37.9 177.4 83.5 79.9 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 23.1 30.4 44.4 182.7 84.7 81.3 6.1 10.8 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 17.5 21.9 35.4 159.3 79.9 75.5 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 16.5 25.9 39.9 206.0 88.6 84.2 4.1 7.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 19.3 22.3 32.8 151.3 78.2 74.3 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 14.5 23.0 42.4 226.5 90.0 85.9 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 28.0 37.0 47.7 181.7 85.7 82.2 9.6 15.2 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 17.6 23.7 34.5 181.4 84.0 80.1 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------