***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 18.8 18.1 109.6 66.3 54.8 5.6 11.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.4 15.3 93.4 60.0 51.6 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.6 16.3 94.0 59.6 49.7 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.7 21.6 17.2 99.0 62.6 51.3 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 19.2 20.1 16.4 94.0 60.2 49.4 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.6 12.3 15.4 82.4 53.6 45.4 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.3 14.6 90.7 58.7 50.0 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.5 19.8 12.6 68.8 49.7 39.6 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.7 17.8 98.2 62.1 51.3 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.9 16.7 15.3 78.6 54.3 43.9 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.2 12.2 14.1 79.7 53.8 45.0 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.4 11.6 11.6 70.5 49.9 40.2 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.1 14.4 79.4 53.9 46.7 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.9 17.9 83.0 54.1 45.3 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.6 17.8 18.0 108.9 66.4 54.8 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.3 14.4 83.4 55.7 47.1 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.9 15.9 100.6 62.8 53.7 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.4 18.0 88.8 57.8 47.8 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.0 15.7 94.7 60.7 52.2 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 13.2 16.1 81.3 53.2 44.8 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.1 15.0 17.5 102.4 63.6 52.4 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 12.2 17.2 100.3 62.8 52.4 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.6 16.6 98.0 61.8 53.8 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.0 18.0 91.4 58.3 49.3 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 15.2 20.7 106.4 64.4 54.0 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.6 9.8 11.3 66.3 45.8 38.2 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.4 18.0 20.9 110.4 66.1 54.8 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.1 15.4 16.0 97.6 62.3 51.1 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 18.7 17.1 81.9 53.4 45.1 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.7 14.7 88.8 58.1 48.8 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------