***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.5 16.5 18.2 109.2 67.0 53.9 5.3 9.8 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.2 16.9 15.4 108.1 66.6 52.6 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.2 18.6 17.2 105.5 65.8 53.0 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.6 21.9 20.1 113.2 67.7 52.5 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.2 18.9 111.7 67.2 52.0 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.8 20.3 24.7 117.1 68.3 52.9 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 13.9 14.5 101.0 64.0 52.0 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 13.1 30.3 20.3 108.0 65.7 50.1 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.0 19.1 106.3 65.5 51.3 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.6 19.2 21.1 105.3 64.9 49.7 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.3 16.4 17.3 110.7 67.2 52.2 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.0 16.9 17.7 108.1 66.1 50.3 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.0 17.6 21.3 114.3 68.0 52.2 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.7 29.9 23.4 113.8 67.9 53.0 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.8 19.0 120.6 70.2 53.1 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.4 17.1 19.4 111.5 67.1 51.9 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.8 15.8 14.9 104.7 65.5 50.4 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 23.4 23.5 108.0 65.6 51.2 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.8 16.8 115.1 68.8 53.6 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.6 21.4 22.5 108.9 65.2 52.3 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.5 18.7 108.0 66.7 52.8 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.9 22.6 17.6 118.1 69.6 52.3 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 18.0 17.7 117.0 69.3 54.1 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.7 23.4 21.1 106.9 65.7 52.6 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.2 16.8 20.9 111.3 67.4 54.4 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.1 18.1 21.0 124.8 71.2 54.0 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.2 19.6 108.1 66.5 54.2 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.4 20.4 115.8 68.5 51.8 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 26.6 23.1 106.3 64.5 51.2 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.5 16.0 15.2 103.3 64.8 52.2 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------