***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.7 29.2 19.5 117.3 69.9 54.7 8.9 16.2 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.7 25.8 17.0 111.5 68.3 54.4 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.6 29.8 18.8 114.3 68.9 54.8 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.8 25.6 17.8 108.0 66.1 50.3 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.5 21.4 17.4 107.6 66.0 51.4 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.9 18.7 20.8 102.8 63.1 51.1 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.4 23.2 17.5 117.3 69.9 55.1 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 17.2 35.5 22.9 119.2 69.1 54.5 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.4 22.9 18.9 109.8 66.6 52.6 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.2 21.6 23.5 117.6 68.7 54.6 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.5 20.2 17.2 113.3 67.6 53.1 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.0 19.7 19.1 119.0 69.4 53.1 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.4 20.3 19.7 110.5 66.6 52.3 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.6 30.6 22.7 107.9 65.7 54.4 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.3 19.6 16.3 109.8 67.3 49.2 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.9 15.6 17.3 105.4 64.9 50.2 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.2 27.7 15.8 105.6 66.6 53.9 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 26.8 25.9 119.8 69.3 55.7 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.4 27.6 17.3 109.6 67.7 54.3 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 22.4 25.0 118.2 68.5 55.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.2 23.3 18.6 112.1 67.9 53.5 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.2 26.9 17.2 108.4 67.2 55.1 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.0 21.2 17.4 106.5 66.5 53.7 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.7 28.9 22.2 116.2 68.6 55.1 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.3 26.5 19.7 113.4 68.3 54.1 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.3 18.3 19.0 125.4 71.5 54.0 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 20.8 28.7 20.2 117.2 69.7 55.8 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.8 18.2 110.3 66.8 49.7 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 30.0 25.7 118.5 68.7 56.0 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.4 27.0 17.8 113.5 68.8 54.8 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------