***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 86.6 90.2 87.9 124.5 72.2 66.8 49.6 64.7 81.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 75.5 79.9 81.1 125.6 73.0 67.9 44.0 57.4 72.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 87.8 92.2 86.9 124.0 72.3 67.3 50.0 65.7 83.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 95.9 108.8 99.5 137.5 79.3 70.8 61.3 75.7 91.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 80.9 87.9 91.5 128.5 75.0 66.6 50.0 63.3 77.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 65.3 78.2 96.3 117.9 70.4 59.4 47.5 60.0 73.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 72.2 74.3 78.3 122.9 71.5 66.9 38.3 51.8 67.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 119.6 127.7 104.8 128.8 76.4 67.6 85.6 100.1 115.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 72.6 77.3 94.8 126.6 74.2 66.9 49.0 59.4 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 86.5 93.6 108.6 127.3 75.2 67.1 54.1 67.9 82.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 70.2 77.9 90.2 130.0 76.1 67.7 43.8 55.4 68.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 71.2 79.5 90.2 131.2 77.1 67.5 42.4 54.5 67.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 59.3 72.5 92.3 123.5 72.7 62.8 44.6 55.3 66.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 106.9 117.6 117.9 131.4 77.2 70.9 66.8 83.3 101.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 70.3 83.0 92.0 143.8 80.5 71.5 38.0 50.5 65.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 58.8 73.9 88.7 126.5 74.2 65.0 43.9 54.6 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 76.3 82.6 79.3 125.0 72.6 67.1 40.0 55.3 73.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 89.6 95.5 115.6 127.7 76.0 67.7 61.4 73.3 85.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 86.1 92.2 85.2 128.1 74.2 68.8 46.5 62.4 80.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 83.4 87.4 106.6 121.7 73.0 64.6 58.8 69.7 81.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 72.1 76.1 91.1 126.3 73.6 66.9 43.9 55.6 68.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 89.6 97.8 90.5 134.6 77.0 70.4 48.2 64.1 81.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 73.4 77.4 89.6 128.4 74.5 69.4 44.1 55.9 68.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 90.2 94.4 105.7 127.5 75.2 68.7 65.4 75.7 86.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 78.6 82.6 96.8 124.3 72.6 66.0 49.1 61.8 75.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 66.2 77.0 91.1 133.5 78.4 67.9 38.2 50.1 63.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 81.3 84.7 93.5 123.1 71.8 66.3 50.5 64.0 78.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 65.0 73.9 96.9 140.0 79.8 70.5 39.9 50.3 61.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 107.9 114.7 113.6 125.3 75.0 66.6 75.5 89.8 104.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 78.2 81.7 82.1 124.6 72.4 67.7 44.1 58.2 73.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------