***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 9.3 11.2 -2.2 12.3 16.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 10.0 9.4 11.1 -1.8 14.6 19.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 11.3 10.3 10.9 -2.2 9.9 14.3 12.3 13.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 6.0 4.9 8.9 -2.0 11.0 16.1 7.2 8.5 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 8.5 7.6 9.0 -2.1 8.9 14.1 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 7.6 7.3 7.3 -1.5 18.0 22.9 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 9.9 9.4 11.3 -1.8 15.1 19.4 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.1 1.4 6.8 -1.9 13.0 17.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 9.5 8.4 9.4 -2.1 8.2 14.2 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 9.4 8.6 7.7 -2.0 9.6 15.0 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 9.3 8.6 8.4 -2.0 10.1 15.2 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 7.4 6.8 7.6 -1.9 12.9 17.5 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 8.7 8.2 7.7 -1.8 12.4 17.5 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 9.8 8.6 9.2 -2.4 6.4 10.7 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 10.3 9.8 10.5 -1.8 13.4 19.3 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 9.5 8.8 8.3 -1.9 11.1 16.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 10.3 9.8 10.9 -1.7 16.0 20.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 7.7 6.8 6.8 -2.2 7.4 12.5 8.5 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 10.1 9.3 11.0 -2.0 12.9 17.6 10.9 11.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 3.9 3.4 4.7 -2.0 11.3 16.4 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 9.3 8.3 10.5 -2.3 8.5 13.1 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 9.5 8.9 10.8 -1.9 14.1 18.6 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 9.7 8.8 10.6 -2.1 10.4 14.9 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 9.3 8.3 8.9 -2.3 6.8 11.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 9.7 9.1 10.2 -2.2 12.5 16.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 8.6 8.1 7.3 -1.8 16.5 20.4 9.1 10.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 9.6 8.6 10.7 -2.1 12.6 16.9 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 8.3 7.8 9.5 -2.0 11.2 16.7 9.0 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 6.1 4.9 6.0 -2.1 8.2 13.5 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 10.1 9.3 11.3 -1.9 13.7 18.2 10.8 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------