***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 13.7 14.6 1.0 69.6 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.6 14.8 1.3 74.4 66.5 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 1.1 71.9 65.3 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.8 12.4 0.8 68.8 64.4 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.9 12.2 0.8 68.9 64.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.6 10.5 0.9 71.9 66.7 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.5 14.8 1.3 73.6 66.3 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.8 10.5 1.0 72.7 66.1 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 0.9 71.1 65.2 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.7 11.2 1.0 72.3 66.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.5 11.7 0.9 70.8 65.5 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.7 11.3 0.9 71.4 65.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.8 10.8 0.8 69.3 65.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.4 12.6 1.0 71.4 64.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.9 13.2 1.1 74.8 68.5 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.8 11.4 0.8 69.4 65.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.5 14.0 14.6 1.4 76.1 67.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.5 10.6 1.0 73.2 66.7 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.5 14.7 1.3 74.2 66.2 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.6 8.7 1.1 73.2 66.0 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.7 13.7 0.9 70.2 64.4 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.6 13.0 14.4 1.3 75.3 66.0 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.0 14.3 1.1 72.9 65.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.9 12.5 1.0 72.5 66.0 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 13.1 0.9 69.0 63.6 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.3 10.9 0.8 68.6 63.9 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.2 13.8 0.9 69.3 63.7 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.6 12.7 0.9 70.5 65.5 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 9.7 10.0 9.8 1.1 73.9 66.9 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.7 14.9 1.2 73.2 65.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------