***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 13.1 14.1 0.1 53.2 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.0 14.3 0.4 63.1 58.9 12.0 12.5 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.3 14.0 0.1 54.3 53.3 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.1 12.0 0.0 49.1 49.2 8.5 9.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.0 11.9 0.0 49.4 49.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.1 55.9 54.2 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.0 14.3 0.3 61.9 58.4 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.8 9.9 0.1 54.8 53.2 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.0 12.2 0.1 53.0 52.3 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.9 10.7 0.1 53.5 52.4 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.7 11.3 0.1 52.3 51.3 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.9 10.8 0.1 54.1 52.6 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.3 10.5 0.1 52.3 51.2 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.6 12.2 0.0 49.3 49.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 12.9 0.2 57.7 55.4 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 11.1 0.0 51.5 50.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.3 14.1 0.5 66.1 60.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.5 10.0 0.1 52.4 51.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.9 14.2 0.3 61.6 57.9 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.5 8.0 0.1 54.4 52.7 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.0 13.3 0.0 50.3 50.6 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.5 13.9 0.4 63.6 59.0 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.4 13.8 0.2 57.7 55.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.0 11.9 0.0 51.4 51.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 12.7 0.0 50.4 50.4 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.8 10.5 0.1 54.0 52.8 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 13.4 0.1 52.2 51.9 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 0.0 50.4 50.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.0 9.2 0.1 52.8 51.7 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.0 14.3 0.3 60.4 57.3 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------