***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 22.0 21.2 -2.5 19.2 24.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.6 21.6 21.6 -1.8 27.1 32.7 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 21.3 20.7 21.3 -2.5 20.1 25.2 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 13.6 13.0 18.6 -2.7 17.4 21.2 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 21.1 20.6 19.4 -2.7 17.9 21.6 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 19.8 19.4 17.1 -2.8 18.0 21.0 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 21.1 21.1 21.4 -1.9 25.2 30.9 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 9.2 8.8 17.3 -2.7 18.8 21.8 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 20.7 20.1 20.3 -2.7 18.2 22.2 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 20.6 20.2 18.5 -2.7 19.3 22.9 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 20.9 20.3 19.1 -2.8 17.8 21.0 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 19.9 19.5 18.1 -2.8 17.9 20.8 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 21.1 20.9 18.4 -2.7 19.0 21.8 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 21.0 20.5 19.9 -2.5 20.4 25.9 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 21.7 21.2 20.3 -2.6 17.6 21.7 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 21.4 21.0 18.8 -2.8 18.0 21.1 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 21.2 21.4 21.4 -1.5 30.4 35.8 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 20.2 20.0 17.7 -2.5 21.0 25.0 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.0 21.6 -1.9 25.7 31.5 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 15.4 15.3 15.6 -2.4 22.4 25.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 20.9 20.2 20.9 -2.8 17.4 21.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.5 21.5 21.3 -1.6 28.8 34.7 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 21.2 20.8 21.3 -2.2 22.7 28.7 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 20.4 19.9 19.6 -2.6 19.9 24.6 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 21.0 20.3 19.8 -2.7 17.9 22.4 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 20.5 20.4 17.6 -2.6 20.5 23.1 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 21.1 20.4 20.5 -2.5 18.7 23.7 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 21.3 20.7 19.3 -2.8 16.8 20.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 15.2 15.0 16.9 -2.4 22.0 25.8 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 21.3 21.1 21.6 -2.0 24.1 29.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------