***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 26.6 24.5 1.4 69.5 62.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.2 24.9 2.0 77.1 66.8 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.7 24.6 1.5 70.4 62.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.3 17.9 22.5 1.0 65.0 59.5 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.5 25.4 22.5 1.0 64.7 59.2 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.6 20.4 1.0 64.3 59.7 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.7 24.8 1.9 76.0 66.4 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.5 20.6 1.1 65.6 59.4 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.9 24.9 22.9 1.1 65.9 59.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.1 24.8 21.5 1.1 66.1 59.7 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.4 25.0 22.0 1.0 64.9 59.3 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.8 21.5 1.0 65.1 59.4 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.0 21.1 1.0 64.4 59.6 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.6 22.7 1.4 68.6 60.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.8 23.1 1.2 68.5 61.6 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.5 21.6 1.0 64.0 59.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 25.2 26.0 24.8 2.3 80.3 68.9 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.7 24.5 20.8 1.3 67.2 60.0 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.3 25.7 24.9 2.0 76.2 65.9 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.6 19.8 18.4 1.2 67.1 59.9 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.2 23.8 1.2 66.5 60.2 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 25.7 26.4 24.6 2.2 79.2 67.7 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.7 26.0 24.5 1.7 73.4 63.9 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.9 22.6 1.3 68.2 60.6 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 25.5 25.3 22.8 1.2 67.4 61.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.2 20.9 1.0 64.5 59.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.2 23.6 1.4 69.3 62.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.8 25.5 22.7 1.0 64.8 59.5 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.8 19.7 19.7 1.3 67.4 59.9 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.9 24.9 1.8 74.7 65.3 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------