***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 25.4 24.9 0.8 61.5 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.8 25.1 1.2 66.0 60.7 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.3 24.9 0.9 61.6 57.6 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.6 23.0 0.5 57.6 54.5 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.4 23.0 0.6 58.6 55.3 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.4 23.5 20.6 0.4 56.5 53.3 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.4 25.0 1.1 65.5 60.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.1 21.2 0.7 60.2 56.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.8 23.4 0.7 60.0 56.3 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.7 22.0 0.7 60.4 56.6 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.0 22.5 0.6 59.0 55.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.0 22.1 0.6 59.6 56.1 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.0 21.5 0.5 58.2 54.9 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.9 23.1 0.8 60.2 56.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 23.7 25.5 23.5 0.5 58.8 54.7 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.5 22.1 0.5 57.6 54.4 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.4 25.0 1.4 68.7 62.5 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.3 21.2 0.8 61.0 57.2 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.5 25.2 25.2 1.1 65.1 60.0 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.6 18.9 0.8 61.5 57.8 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.1 24.2 0.7 59.9 56.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 25.9 25.8 24.8 1.3 67.1 61.4 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.4 24.8 1.0 63.0 58.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.5 23.0 0.8 60.4 56.7 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.1 23.2 0.6 59.5 56.1 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.5 21.3 0.5 58.1 55.2 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.9 24.0 0.7 60.7 57.2 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 23.7 25.5 23.2 0.5 57.1 53.8 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.4 20.1 0.8 61.2 57.5 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.5 25.2 1.1 64.5 59.6 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------