***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 25.3 24.2 0.2 54.9 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 25.7 25.4 24.5 0.7 65.7 60.9 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 23.4 24.9 24.3 0.3 55.9 55.1 23.6 24.6 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.1 22.2 -0.1 48.5 49.7 16.3 17.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.8 24.8 22.3 0.0 49.6 50.7 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.2 20.1 -0.1 48.6 49.7 22.4 23.2 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 25.3 24.9 24.4 0.6 63.7 59.9 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.7 20.5 0.0 51.0 52.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.3 22.8 0.1 52.1 52.7 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.2 21.4 0.1 52.4 53.1 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.5 21.9 0.0 49.6 50.8 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.4 21.4 0.0 50.0 51.1 22.6 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.6 21.0 0.0 49.8 50.6 23.7 24.6 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 23.2 24.6 22.5 0.1 53.7 53.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 24.0 25.1 23.0 0.1 52.0 52.0 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.0 21.6 -0.1 48.5 49.6 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.1 24.4 0.9 70.2 63.7 23.1 24.0 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 22.6 23.8 20.6 0.2 54.4 54.5 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 25.2 24.8 24.5 0.6 64.3 59.9 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.8 19.1 18.3 0.2 54.3 54.4 18.0 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.3 24.5 23.6 0.0 51.2 52.1 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 25.7 25.5 24.2 0.8 68.3 62.3 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.5 25.0 24.2 0.4 60.1 57.5 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.8 24.1 22.4 0.1 53.8 54.0 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.4 24.5 22.6 0.0 51.2 51.9 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.0 20.7 0.0 51.1 51.4 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.4 23.3 0.2 53.7 53.7 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.9 22.5 -0.1 47.9 49.2 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.9 19.6 0.2 54.5 54.6 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.1 24.5 0.5 62.1 58.8 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------