***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 12.3 14.3 94.1 60.5 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.8 9.7 11.1 74.8 51.1 41.4 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.1 14.1 92.1 58.4 49.2 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.8 20.6 20.3 123.3 70.5 60.5 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.6 17.3 19.1 111.4 66.3 56.1 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.1 16.2 21.8 120.5 69.8 62.3 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.7 9.1 11.5 73.6 51.3 42.3 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 22.2 25.5 19.8 107.9 64.2 55.2 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.5 17.9 104.1 63.6 53.7 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 16.1 19.1 98.1 60.2 51.4 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.5 16.0 19.6 126.0 71.3 59.9 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.2 15.9 19.3 132.9 73.1 62.9 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.6 13.8 20.2 121.1 69.6 60.4 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 10.8 14.0 75.4 46.8 39.6 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.9 19.8 135.0 74.0 62.0 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.6 18.8 20.2 126.7 71.5 61.1 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.7 8.1 10.2 66.3 46.1 35.7 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 14.2 17.8 82.7 52.0 44.9 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 10.8 11.5 77.8 51.8 42.2 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 15.1 19.3 86.2 54.0 47.1 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.3 13.0 16.4 102.2 63.0 53.1 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 6.5 10.2 10.5 67.8 44.9 35.2 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.6 11.9 12.5 82.3 53.6 44.2 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.7 14.1 15.5 82.3 51.8 44.0 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.2 17.8 101.2 61.8 51.6 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 15.3 16.6 21.8 136.8 74.6 65.3 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 15.7 92.1 58.6 48.9 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 13.2 15.2 20.5 135.0 74.0 63.4 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 19.5 17.5 80.7 51.1 44.0 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.0 11.6 12.1 80.8 54.4 45.5 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------