***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 9.2 12.5 72.0 50.4 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.3 14.0 78.1 50.2 41.1 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.5 10.7 13.5 78.0 51.5 41.2 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.7 18.5 18.1 96.8 61.2 48.9 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.5 16.4 17.2 89.2 58.2 47.0 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.1 26.6 102.7 63.3 53.6 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 7.9 14.2 79.6 50.9 42.0 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.4 18.4 87.5 56.7 47.2 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.2 11.7 16.4 82.6 55.5 44.5 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 15.7 18.7 84.6 55.7 46.2 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.7 16.3 88.6 57.9 47.7 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.5 15.2 87.0 57.8 47.6 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 20.1 91.1 58.1 49.2 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.1 11.4 17.5 77.5 50.1 41.7 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.8 18.3 109.7 66.3 52.5 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.5 18.8 94.3 59.8 49.6 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.8 12.5 73.0 48.3 40.5 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 12.1 20.7 83.2 53.1 44.2 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.5 10.1 13.8 77.5 50.5 40.7 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.7 24.1 89.1 55.1 46.0 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.9 14.0 80.0 54.2 42.6 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.7 7.4 12.3 73.0 48.5 40.6 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.8 7.7 14.2 78.4 51.7 41.0 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.2 10.0 17.3 79.6 51.7 42.6 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.6 17.5 83.5 54.6 45.1 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.4 13.9 18.9 96.3 60.5 50.2 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.4 10.3 15.6 77.0 51.3 42.5 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.4 14.8 18.6 106.8 65.3 52.2 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 17.0 21.5 84.1 52.7 44.0 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.8 14.0 78.8 51.0 41.5 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------