***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 14.6 16.7 93.9 62.5 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.4 19.1 18.7 103.0 65.2 50.5 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.1 19.8 17.6 98.9 63.9 49.9 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.5 21.9 19.6 95.3 63.3 50.9 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 16.2 19.0 91.2 62.5 51.4 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.9 21.5 28.0 113.1 67.8 56.5 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.0 15.3 18.3 99.5 63.6 49.9 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 27.5 31.7 20.5 96.5 63.0 54.0 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.0 18.7 89.6 62.2 51.4 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 18.9 21.2 94.5 62.7 53.3 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.6 15.7 17.9 93.4 62.9 52.2 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 15.4 17.7 16.6 93.4 62.7 52.3 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 15.3 18.2 22.0 102.5 64.8 54.0 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.5 27.9 21.3 99.8 64.1 51.0 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.6 18.0 100.7 65.5 51.2 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.2 16.7 20.0 99.7 64.3 53.0 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.1 17.7 17.6 102.3 64.7 50.4 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 22.3 23.5 96.1 62.9 53.8 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.7 18.3 103.6 65.4 50.4 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 20.2 25.8 98.7 62.6 54.2 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.0 16.7 17.0 90.6 62.3 49.8 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.8 22.8 17.6 105.8 65.9 51.2 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.4 18.4 18.2 101.6 64.6 49.6 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.3 23.3 20.9 98.8 64.1 52.6 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.5 17.4 21.2 96.6 63.7 51.5 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.5 14.4 19.3 100.2 64.5 53.8 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.6 15.9 20.0 97.4 63.6 50.8 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.1 15.9 19.0 99.9 65.0 51.7 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 26.6 23.9 97.1 62.9 53.9 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.6 17.8 18.5 102.4 65.0 50.2 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------