***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 27.7 9.9 95.5 64.3 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.8 24.8 10.8 106.3 66.8 52.6 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 20.9 25.1 10.7 100.9 65.3 50.7 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.6 24.3 12.6 103.5 65.8 49.0 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.5 20.7 13.3 104.7 66.1 48.1 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.5 19.0 19.3 94.9 62.1 48.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.9 21.0 10.8 108.2 67.4 53.3 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.9 29.9 14.6 102.1 63.8 46.7 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.9 21.3 13.1 101.9 64.8 47.7 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.4 19.7 15.2 100.8 63.5 46.9 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.7 21.5 13.4 112.3 67.9 46.9 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.0 17.6 11.9 110.7 67.2 46.2 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 18.6 15.1 103.5 65.1 47.2 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.8 31.2 14.7 109.9 66.6 50.4 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.2 17.1 10.3 103.2 65.8 49.0 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.8 17.0 14.4 109.0 67.1 48.1 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.3 30.4 11.0 113.5 68.7 52.0 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.5 21.6 16.6 97.6 61.5 47.6 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.1 28.0 10.9 106.6 67.1 52.5 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.3 17.5 18.6 97.3 61.1 48.0 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.1 19.8 11.1 100.8 65.2 49.1 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 20.0 25.4 11.1 110.7 67.9 49.9 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.0 22.2 11.8 110.7 68.3 52.4 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.2 26.3 14.1 102.9 64.3 49.6 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.5 24.1 13.1 103.5 65.8 51.2 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.6 14.7 12.6 99.9 63.8 45.7 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.9 23.6 12.0 99.9 65.0 51.3 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.2 15.3 12.1 102.7 65.7 48.4 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.3 27.7 17.4 99.6 62.2 48.2 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.6 25.4 10.5 102.4 65.8 52.1 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------