***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 59.5 53.4 88.0 50.0 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 44.1 58.7 54.5 89.4 49.4 44.5 45.4 59.2 74.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 76.5 69.6 55.8 91.6 51.5 44.8 52.1 68.1 85.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 56.4 84.5 70.7 104.0 60.2 52.7 56.7 73.6 91.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 71.9 70.0 68.7 98.0 55.9 49.3 51.0 64.7 79.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 66.3 70.4 95.7 107.4 62.3 55.9 47.3 60.0 73.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 39.0 52.2 54.7 88.6 48.8 44.4 40.0 53.2 68.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 109.4 106.5 73.3 97.8 54.8 48.1 87.0 102.1 117.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 64.4 61.2 66.1 93.4 52.7 46.5 49.0 59.4 70.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 75.0 69.2 74.2 93.8 51.8 45.8 54.1 67.7 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 62.3 64.1 67.2 103.2 59.5 51.7 46.4 57.3 69.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 60.8 63.6 63.0 104.1 60.1 52.4 43.9 55.7 68.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 61.4 62.5 77.5 103.5 59.4 52.2 45.5 55.9 67.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 67.2 82.2 67.5 89.0 46.8 41.9 69.1 85.3 103.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 56.8 64.1 66.4 112.1 65.2 55.8 37.4 50.5 65.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 60.6 63.9 73.4 106.1 61.4 53.8 42.9 54.9 67.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 40.0 55.6 51.4 86.3 47.2 43.7 41.9 58.6 77.5 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 58.9 72.2 78.5 89.5 47.0 42.4 62.2 74.4 87.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 48.4 65.4 54.5 90.1 49.9 44.2 50.0 65.7 82.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 57.5 69.7 87.9 92.7 49.1 43.9 59.5 70.1 81.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 63.8 60.0 58.4 92.4 53.0 46.3 45.4 57.7 71.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 47.4 64.2 51.5 87.3 48.4 43.9 49.9 65.9 84.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 44.4 58.5 56.7 91.7 50.9 44.0 45.6 57.9 71.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 64.9 76.3 67.9 89.9 48.4 43.0 66.8 77.5 88.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 49.6 66.7 69.5 95.2 53.6 47.0 50.2 63.5 78.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 56.2 61.2 72.6 107.7 62.5 54.6 39.6 51.3 64.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 50.9 65.8 63.2 90.6 50.6 44.5 51.6 65.0 80.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 55.2 60.2 70.1 110.8 64.4 56.1 39.3 49.9 61.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 75.0 90.1 80.4 89.9 46.7 42.2 78.3 92.9 108.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 44.7 60.6 55.2 90.2 50.1 44.4 46.0 60.3 76.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------