***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.2 13.1 0.0 50.1 50.4 11.2 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.2 13.0 0.0 50.9 51.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.1 13.9 13.3 0.1 51.4 51.3 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.4 10.5 -0.1 48.1 48.2 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.9 11.1 0.0 51.1 50.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.7 8.7 0.2 53.5 52.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.2 13.0 0.0 50.6 51.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.5 8.6 0.1 51.8 51.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.9 11.3 0.2 54.6 53.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.6 9.6 0.1 52.7 52.2 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.6 10.6 0.2 53.2 52.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.6 9.5 0.1 52.4 51.7 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.9 9.4 0.1 51.3 50.6 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.5 12.4 11.0 0.1 52.5 52.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.7 12.1 0.1 52.8 52.1 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.8 10.0 0.1 51.6 51.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.5 12.7 0.1 51.0 51.4 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.2 8.9 0.1 51.9 51.5 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.3 13.0 0.2 52.9 52.7 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.3 6.8 0.0 50.2 49.8 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.7 12.5 0.1 51.6 51.4 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 12.7 0.1 51.5 51.8 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.1 13.0 0.3 56.4 55.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.8 11.0 0.2 53.2 52.6 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.9 12.0 0.0 49.5 49.7 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.4 8.7 0.1 51.2 50.6 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.1 12.6 0.0 49.5 49.9 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.9 10.6 10.9 0.0 49.5 49.3 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.6 8.1 0.1 52.2 51.7 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 13.2 0.0 50.9 51.1 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------